Update on this: S&P: +4.4% 🟠 BTC: + 13.0% 🟢 ETH: +19.8% 🟢 SOL: +11.6% 🟢 REI: +63.6% 🟢🟢 DXY -1.1% 🟢 Sometimes you have months where nothing happens, and days where months happen.
It's been a good year so far. - Moved primarily to cash (non-USD) towards start of yr - Bought the post-inauguration / liberation day blood, with remaining cash in non-USD currencies Think the playbook for rest of yr is becoming increasingly clear now: Equities IMO equities have limited upside from here. Macro remains supportive, but still, all else equal we're in far worse shape than the last time we hit 6k. I've sold all my S&P that I bought sub-5k around current levels (5.8-6k), as the r/r just isn't there for me. Crypto BTC thesis has improved substantially: - Overton Window dramatically shifted, many companies starting to add BTC to treasury, multiple MSTR style strats spawning, some with the blessings of the Trump cabal - Various Trump-linked crypto initiatives in place. The presidential cabal is buying in at current levels both directly and indirectly. - SEC is now incredibly supportive, not just comments from chair, but actual actions inc. dropping high-profile enforcement cases, rescinding SAB 121 etc. - Likely we see staked ETH and SOL ETFs imminently, particularly beneficial for SOL with the high issuance - Macro environment looking supportive for LQ injections from CBs, less tariff effects than anticipated, inflation at or below expectations, and economy in goldilocks zone Geopolitical events are short term liquidity squeezes, we've seen similar play out twice last yr, and while the scale of current escalation is far greater, from market perspective, situation isn't too different. It makes no sense to me fading BTC when the literal presidential cabal is loading up at these levels. They're going to do everything within their power to support it (and things arguable not in their power). Conclusions Imo I think we're primed for a run for BTC to $120k-$130k+, and I've been holding my BTC position from original buys at $76-$90k. Dips are for buying. Holding smaller positions of ETH and SOL. Alt market is not the same as previous cycles, simply too much value extraction taking place for a wider alt season. There will be outperformers, and times when entire market pumps, but I think to do well here, will need to focus on rotations, and latest narratives. As a longer term hold, I like $REI, one of the few AI projects that's actually innovating at the core level. Nous Research's raise val a good benchmark here. Also think worth left-curving the pumpfun TGE short term. Short term, sure it'll be a liquidity crunch, but will also revitalise the trenches (already is), and will be opportunities there. One thing I'm staying away from for now is stablecoin farming- too many DXY headwinds that I think persist for most of this yr. May revisit this once we see a further 10% DXY decline. Will revisit this in a few months, look forward to seeing how things play out.
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