I have never been more bullish about the U.S. economy and stock market.
Here's why:
1. I still see a TON of bearishness on X, with most people expecting a pullback. The market can't keep going up after a 20% recovery, right? I view this as a highly bullish signal.
2. Due to general bearishness and current interest rates, there is very little margin being used in the market today, still less in total dollar amount than back in 2021. In fact, margin as a percentage of US market cap is hovering around the lowest levels in over 20 years. (image 1)
3. We have twice as much money on the sidelines as we did in 2008 at the PEAK of the 08 recession. (image 2)
4. The amount of efficiency and productivity AI is unlocking is still vastly underestimated, with many studies expecting only a 0.1% to 0.6% annual productivity boost in the U.S. through 2040. The individual companies I'm tracking are showing productivity boosts that put these economist estimates to shame.
5. Like it or hate it, Trump's tax cuts are locked in, new tax cuts have been added, Planned Parenthood is defunded (which means more new babies) and every baby in America as of this year will be born with a pre-funded investing account. All of this is good news for economic growth and the U.S. stock market.
6. Interest rate cuts are coming. Remember this recovery happened WITHOUT any monetary easing. Which means easing is still ahead. Whether it's Powell or Trump's new appointee, interest rates will come down soon. Capital is about to get cheaper and having money in money market funds is about to get a lot worse. This change will move money up the risk curve and back into stocks.
All this sets us up for a truly historic second half of the roaring 20s, assuming the companies you own are going all-in on AI, not sitting around waiting to be disrupted it.
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