BEHIND THE SCENES price

Often, speculation doesn't yield profits through frequent judgments. For example, in the future, ETH is likely to be much lower than this price, so except for top-tier players like Liangzi, micro-manipulation and struggling have very limited significance. Previously, it was projected that mid-term ETH would drop to 800, calculated as an 80% drop from 4000, which is a relatively moderate scenario. In 2022, the metaverse narrative broke, and even major tech companies with real revenue like META (Facebook) experienced a similar decline. If it's just about how much it drops, that's a market and liquidity issue. If there's no fundamental advantage, then it's unclear how much it will drop. As for how it gets to 800, it's hard to know. Just knowing that getting back to 4000 is extremely difficult, you can roughly calculate it proportionally. Even if ETH drops to 800, it still has a market cap of 100 billion USD. SOL and BNB don't even have 100 billion now. Looking at 5000 when it's a few hundred, and looking at 5000 now, the probability is actually lower now. Although facing the future, there is always anxiety and confusion. Now reaching 5000, there are two possible scenarios: one is that after fierce competition, it proves that Ethereum is dominant, and others are not viable; the second is that although it can't be proven yet, the dollar's short-term devaluation is so severe that it pushes Ethereum to 5000. If it's the second scenario, you still have to hold Bitcoin. Only the first scenario has a chance of reversal, so considering the possibilities, everyone has their own answer. The market cap freed up by ETH is likely to be occupied by these or other public chains—Bitcoin is hard to be used as a blood bag, altcoins use each other as blood bags. Until a new king of public chains emerges, its market cap share will rise and slowly surpass ETH. If ETH loses its king status, then it might be even lower than 800, because a king has a premium, and losing it naturally results in a discount. Another possibility is that although it remains the king, the previous bubble was too large, and now it's deflating. Narratives relying on Layer 2, zk, sharding, and staking have all been debunked; innovation doesn't come out of nowhere. The prototypes of DeFi/NFT were seen in the BTS/EOS DApp era, and if there were a suitable direction under the current performance, a prototype would have already appeared. The absence means there's no way forward. Once you understand this framework, frequently analyzing specific price points becomes very limited in significance.