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Next year's crypto top 10 by market cap will look completely different 1. Btc 2. Eth 3. Sol 4. Npc 4. Spx 5. Usdc 6. Pepe 7. Mog 8. Apu 9. Sigma 10. What else?

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Author: Doc Compilation: Tim, PANews The purpose of this article is to give you an idea of how I identify key signals in the market. We need to understand the psychological mechanisms behind risk and use this to our advantage to identify potential market bottoms. 1. The lower the consensus, the first project to collapse When uncertainty hits, sellers sell off their least bullish assets. For example, coins with low consensus will crash first and lose blood earlier. Think about it logically: if you need money urgently, you won't sell your valuables, but sell things that you don't usually need and are worthless. Similarly, when traders are unsure of market movements or want to reduce risk, they tend to sell the assets on which they are least emotionally dependent to cash out. It's no coincidence that this phenomenon happens every time Bitcoin peaks. Altcoins did not rise after Bitcoin reached the top, but rose in tandem with Bitcoin's peak. They showed signs of fatigue in the face of bitcoin earlier, having peaked a few weeks ago. This is an early warning sign. Smart traders reduce risk before anyone else even notices what's going on. 2. Risk VS Blue Chips Let's go back to the previous logic: people will keep their cherished high-quality possessions for as long as possible, and will only cut their love when they are desperate. The most sought-after coins usually try to hold on to their gains as much as possible. That's why Bitcoin always looks strong, and every few weeks before a market crash, the internet is always full of tweets like "What are you panicking, Bitcoin is obviously stable". Selling Order: a) First of all, Shittcoins b) Then there are the blue chips c) Eventually all coins are sold 3. Reflexivity effects appear Weakness leads to more weakness. When whales start to sell in the midst of depleted demand, it induces market weakness. This is typical of the characteristics of the chip distribution stage: lack of pick-up, exhaustion of demand, and the trend of moving away. The change in the characteristics of risky assets will make the core decision-makers of experienced traders re-evaluate their strategies. "I couldn't sell at the top, but the nature of the market has changed. It's time to lower your exposure or close your position. " "If this kind of decline is considered a nuclear explosion-level crash, what mines are still hidden in my account?" All of a sudden: a position correction triggers a bigger sell-off, which is reflexive, a positive feedback loop in which risk appetite fades. 4. Volatility: The Last Dance When the Bitcoin crash is approaching, the market is often quiet: volatility plummets, the market fluctuates in a narrow range, and complacency peaks. Then, bang~, it collapsed. Now, let's focus on the nature of the market in equilibrium and imbalance. The equilibrium is achieved when market participants gradually reach a consensus on what is expensive and what is cheap. It's a dance. This is equilibrium. Equilibrium means calm. Known information has been digested, speculation has weakened, volatility has narrowed. This dance goes on until one party gets bored, tired, or wants to go to the bar for another drink. i.e., the buyer or seller is exhausted; Or there is a change in supply and demand. The equilibrium is disrupted. As soon as it is broken: there is an imbalance. The price deviated sharply from its original position. Values become obscure; Volatility skyrocketed. The market craves balance and will actively seek it. Prices often return to areas that have recently been overbalanced: such as high volume points, order blocks, composite value zones, etc. It is in these areas that you will see the most violent rebounds. "The first test is the best time". The response to subsequent tests will gradually wane. The situation tends to be structured. Prices stabilized at new points. Volatility contraction. Balance reappears in the city. 5. Selling process and bottom identification Surrender and selling is not the beginning of the endgame, but the end of the middle game. a) Copycat vs Bitcoin In this cycle, altcoins tend to complete major sell-offs before the Bitcoin crash. Recent example: Fartcoin has retreated 88% from its highs before the Bitcoin crash at the end of February. Since this pattern holds, we can use it as a trading signal when looking for a signal of market exhaustion (a sign of a bottom). While Bitcoin is still volatile and finding a new equilibrium, the strongest altcoins will be the first to show signs of relative strength and exhaustion. To put it simply, when Bitcoin enters the late stages of imbalance, it should look for high-quality altcoins to build a balanced position. As participants, our goal is to capture these divergences. "Is there a shift in market momentum?" "Is volatility narrowing?" "Is the pace of selling slowing down?" "Will Bitcoin still hold steady when it hits new lows?" Q2 bottoming signals: Weakened momentum (e.g. Fartcoin) SFP, deviation (e.g. Hype, Sui public chain) Higher lows vs. lower bitcoin points (e.g. Pepe) Altcoins usually fall first, and then slow down when Bitcoin bottoms out. Here's the trick to spotting a good altcoin. The weak are always weak. The strong quietly laid out, preempting the start of the market. b) Bitcoin VS S&P 500 Now let's arrange a little exercise for everyone. Combining all the concepts in this article, perhaps the following becomes reasonable: Summer '23: Bitcoin peaked ahead of the S&P 500 and bottomed earlier Summer '24: Bitcoin peaked ahead of the S&P 500 and digested the S&P's macro-induced plunge at the low end of the range 25 years to date: Bitcoin peaked ahead of the S&P 500 and withstood a 20% S&P plunge at the low end of the range Key conclusions: Market bottoming is a process, not an instant: altcoins come first→ Bitcoin relay → S&P comes behind Operational Essentials: Focus on observing the evolution of market structure, rather than simply tracking sentiment fluctuations

How to capture the bottom signal from the "Shitcoin Collapse -> $BTC Cover Fall-> U.S. Stock Crash". 1) Altcoins are the first to surrender - low-confidence assets are bleeding - When the risk comes, funds will give priority to abandoning low-consensus coins (such as Meme coins and high-valuation narrative coins), which is like selling idle items for cash; - Institutions compete for stablecoins, funds migrate to safe-haven crypto assets, and the liquidity of shitcoins dries up; > If #BTC goes sideways and the cottage continues to fall, it indicates that a large level of risk is coming! 2) The last bastion of the pie is lost - the liquidity crisis is in full swing - #BTC As digital gold, it is strong to bear the fall, but when institutions are forced to deleverage, the cover of the decline begins. - The current escalation of the situation in the Middle East (attack on Iranian nuclear facilities + crisis in the Strait of Hormuz), Wall Street's risk aversion triggered a BTC sell-off (24H has fallen 8%); > #BTC has a correlation of 0.75 with the S&P 500, and BTC could test $93,000 support if U.S. stocks continue to fall (inflation expectations of 5%). 3) The lagged crash of U.S. stocks – the last darkness before the crypto bottom - The three cycles of 2023-2025 all verify that BTC peaked before U.S. stocks, but bottomed out earlier than U.S. stocks; - The Fed hinted at only one rate cut in 2025, and deteriorating liquidity expectations weighed on risk assets; - The passage of the stablecoin bill is good for the long-term hegemony of the US dollar, but it is withdrawn from the market in the short term. > BlackRock and other institutional ETF holdings account for 3.25% of BTC circulation, and the giant whale may accelerate the formation of a bottom. 🟢 Bottom-buying strategy 1) Altcoin stabilization test: - Observe whether strong meme coins such as PEPE have BTC falling and the coin price trading sideways; 2) U.S. stock panic peaks: - If the S&P 500 crashes and then the Vix index rises and falls, the crypto market may be the first to rebound. > Alts First -> Bitcoin Next -> SPX Last is not only the selling order, but also the bottom map! > is currently in the middle of BTC covering losses (target 93,000-95,000), patiently waiting for the volatility explosion - > the gold rebound point for rebalancing reconstruction. It's true that my energy has been a little lower recently, but I have a group of very good friends who have been encouraging me in different ways, and everything will get better and better!! The same is true for the crypto market, as long as we don't cut the meat and don't have stage fright, the spot is okay Believe in the power of believing.