Today's Market Insights Voice: AI Summary: Cryptocurrency Market Analysis (June 26, Thursday Morning) This briefing summarizes key market insights from the audio recording on June 26 (Thursday morning), focusing on the price trends of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), broader market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors. 1. Current Market Conditions and Price Trends A. Bitcoin (BTC) Current Price: Approximately 107,500. Resistance: Despite experiencing a "slow rise" over the past three days, Bitcoin is still facing resistance at the 108,000 mark. This "slow rise" has been described as "looking bearish but slowly rising," which may indicate that this rally is nearing its end. Unhealthy Rise: The recent move from 98,000 to 108,000 has been described as "unhealthy" due to the lack of significant pullbacks or structural support. About half of this increase occurred without any healthy corrections. Drivers of Recent Increase: This rise is attributed to visible "institutional TWUP buying" in the spot market order book and those who are now chasing prices after selling at the bottom, known as "FOMO" (fear of missing out). B. Ethereum (ETH) Current Price: Approximately 2,400. Resistance: Ethereum "topped out at 2,480 earlier than Bitcoin" and has struggled to reclaim the critical 2,450+ range, specifically facing resistance at the lower end of a value area within a certain range. Weaker Performance: Ethereum's overall price trend has been noted as "not as strong as Bitcoin." C. Altcoins Generally Weak: Most altcoins are observed to be at the "bottom of the previous range," typically at "support-resistance conversion levels," struggling to continue rising after hitting resistance. Exceptions: There are a few exceptions, such as "Hype," which has been noted as "a very strong coin." Shorting Opportunities: Many altcoins' current positions indicate that "the cost-effectiveness of shorting is relatively high." 2. Market Expectations and Potential Scenarios A. General Expectation of a Pullback Both bullish and bearish investors expect a "pullback" or "decline" at current levels. B. Divergence in Trends After Pullback Bullish View: Bulls expect Bitcoin to pull back to the 104,000-102,000 range (possibly around 102,500) and then push further towards 110,000 or set a new all-time high. Given the previous unhealthy rise, this scenario is considered "entirely reasonable." Bearish View: Bears believe the current rise may just be a "dead cat bounce," a retest of lower levels (possibly below 98,000) before reaching previous highs. C. Current Position Analysis Not Suitable for Going Long: "This is definitely not a position to chase and go long." Going long only becomes cost-effective if Bitcoin pulls back to around 102,000. More Suitable for Shorting: While not the absolute best position, the current location offers "relatively high cost-effectiveness for shorting." The speaker previously considered shorting at 106,000, and aggressive bears may have already targeted Ethereum. The best shorting points with the highest risk-reward ratio are at 109,000 or 109,200. Direction Uncertainty: The speaker believes it is "difficult to determine" which scenario (further rise or deeper pullback) will occur from the current point. Advice for Conservatives: For conservative investors, it is recommended to "take profits" if they have already bought at the bottom, or even "choose to hold cash" to wait for a clearer direction. 3. Macroeconomic Outlook A. Overall Bearish Sentiment The overall macroeconomic situation is "not optimistic." Tariff Expiration: The tariffs expiring in early July are a concern. CPI Impact: The June CPI may rise due to tariff impacts, which could "increase uncertainty about rate cut plans." This information has been shared on Twitter. Unrealistic Rate Cut Hopes: The speaker believes that based on current data, the market's expectations for a rate cut in July are "unrealistic," unless the June CPI data is unexpectedly positive, which would require reassessment. 4. Strategic Considerations A. Altcoin Main Wave Trend For altcoins to truly enter a "main wave" bull market, Bitcoin needs to stabilize and hold above 112,000. Patience for Altcoin Bulls: It is too early to chase the "main wave" of altcoins now. Waiting for Bitcoin to set a new high and consolidate is a better strategy, as the price difference for entry (e.g., buying at the end of November/early December versus early December) will be minimal. B. Shorting Opportunities Even if the market briefly rises (e.g., to 109,000 or 109,200), that level will provide "the highest risk-reward ratio for shorting." 5. Conclusion The speaker believes that "the likelihood of a decline is greater." While acknowledging the possibility of testing 109,000, the current position offers better short risk-reward, although considering the potential for a direct upward test of the ascending trend line at 109,000, the win rate is not guaranteed. For those who bought at the bottom, it is advised to remain cautious and take profits, leaning towards waiting for a clearer direction or shorting at favorable opportunities. This article is sponsored by #BCGAME | @bcgame @bcgamecoin