My main conviction for 2024 is a new category of token called Provenance Coins. I’ve written my thesis on this below, as a long form tweet. The blockchain allows us to track the history and origin of all assets created on it. Because of this, NFTs are a common way for artists to mint works that, among many other features, can be easily authenticated. The authenticity of an object is something of great controversy in the art and collectibles world. Physical objects have foggy chains of ownership, and “experts” can spin up stories to make something real; as much as 20% of art in public museums may be fake. The blockchain solves the problem of provenance by recording every transaction, forever. If an artist mints an artwork, it is trivial to record and then verify the token at a future date. Why do people care about authenticity? People are enthralled by stories. If they can be convinced that an object (physical or digital) has really experienced the events it is claimed to have experienced, it is imbued with this magical property, first through the individual and then through the social network of people who have their imaginations captured the same way. This is why people desire the real thing instead of an identical faux replica; this is how, through NFTs, a digital image can have value. This on-chain use of provenance is mostly utilised by artists making art and brands making collectibles. The concept can of course be expanded further. It makes the most sense that digitally native objects and stories should be recorded this way. The most obvious example of this would be memes. While memes have many tokens named after them, the vast majority have no link to their origins; #Dogecoin was created by fans of the image of Kabosu, with no actual link to her; the recent $PEPE has no link to Matt Furie, despite him already creating NFTs. Memes are viral phenomenons, but they are mostly minted as 1 of 1 NFTs, and in some cases open editions or collections. The limited divisibility enforced by these models is a barrier to virality. As we have seen with $DOGE et al., price function greatly benefits from fungibility and liquidity, regardless of authenticity. This leads me to introduce an entirely new category of tokens: Provenance Coins. Provenance Coins combine the markets of art and memecoins into one asset. They disrupt the current memecoin paradigm by creating indisputably legitimate tokens, underpinning it with a substance that existing tokens like Dogecoin are devoid of. For example, $DOG is backed by the original photo taken by @kabosumama. This photo is globally recognized and, for more than ten years, has been used endlessly as a format for conveying ideas. This image can be owned collectively through fractionalization. Fractionalization works using a smart contract that splits the original NFT into tokens, which can be redeemed proportionally for the sale price of the #NFT if it is won by auction through the same smart contract. The token holders can vote on the reserve price of the auction. The first example of this was a fractionalized version of Yellow Glasses Guy, $YGGC. In late 2021, I launched $NFD, which was a fractional token of another, less famous (and more affordable) image of Kabosu that was captured and auctioned off by Atsuko Sato. Shortly after, $DOG was created. I have since joined @ownthedoge to direct tokenomics. Many other Provenance Coins exist, for example, through @DankBankHQ who have collected many famous images with the intention of fractionalizing them. The success of the fractionalized tokens in turn pushes up the value of these 1 of 1 NFTs, benefitting their creators. This transformation of the memecoin market also appeals to more sceptical and outside investors, especially when the subject is something they may recognize, by giving them a trusted vehicle. Greater respect for truth encourages reciprocation of the same - it will draw in those who care about history, and make them comfortable through verification. Some DAOs exist that focus on collecting these pieces of internet culture. Examples are Feisty DAO (@NFDtoken) and @PleasrDAO. Feisty DAO has created an ecosystem with NFD as the central token. It uses defi to create new functions, like prints of the original image, which can be created by locking some of the token. It also fractionalized Angry Doge as $ANFD, which can be earned by staking NFD-ETH LP, so liquidity is incentivized by the opportunity to ‘mine’ a cultural image. It also holds $HARAMBE, one of the original famous Gigachad images by Sleekntears, and some of Sminem’s 1 of 1s. PleasrDAO have created the ‘pixel portal’, where you can lock some DOG to generate a single pixel of the original doge image as an NFT. They also helped launch $FREE, a fractional token of @RealRossU’s art that was won at auction. Provenance Coins can also be created directly. For example, $OGSM was created by Roman @thesminemverse, the boy in the famous Sminem image. He did this by simply creating an ERC-20 himself; there is no need for fractionalization, as it is implicitly representative of the meme, and he profits through his share of the supply. This allows him to benefit directly from his internet fame - something he was unable to do before crypto. Many creators in similar positions are empowered the same way by the blockchain, typically through NFTs. People like @saint_whynne, the creator of trollface, and @solidbadluck, the creator of Bad Luck Brian, have minted their creations in order to gain financial success that was not otherwise available to them. It is very common for these creators to see their work reproduced endlessly without credit, be it through fast fashion or creditless reposts. The blockchain allows them to apply authenticity to their work online without having to rely on the outdated copyright system. A combination of treasury and LP mismanagement in the bear market meant that DOG saw a significant price slide, wth holders losing confidence in the concept. Many similar assets saw the same mispricing. I took this as an opportunity. DOG is currently valued at $40m FDV. Gigachad sold for just $50k. Compare this to other famous images and works of art; the value discrepancy is huge. The Mona Lisa is hard to value, but would be upwards of $20b. This discrepancy is also true when compared to other popular memecoins. It is not difficult to imagine that the authentic examples of these ideas should be worth far, far more than they are now. Traders and collectors alike like to signal status through veblen goods. This is an idea shared by many large traders. NFTs are an obvious digital example of this, but Provenance Coins have the potential to capture some of this demand through clever use of Dapps. Prints allow the tokens to be converted to a format that can be displayed, just the same as any other NFT, while still carrying the authenticity of the original token as it can be traced back through the contract. This can make a single image much like a pfp collection; it can be worn by many owners, without the same divisibility and liquidity problems faced by 10k collections. Illegitimate namesakes can be mass produced. We see countless tokens spun up, with many bought instantly by insiders and promoted through pseudonymous networks. They play a confidence game purely for profit, sometimes with a forced ‘culture’ that does not escape CT. There is rarely a long term outlook and it can be repeated without consequence. On balance, there are many great grassroots communities that have formed organically this way; people love comeback stories after the dev rugs. But this is a drain on honest participants who keep rewarding the bad actors. Authenticity creates a more reliable scarcity. If there is a verifiable creator or piece of art you enjoy, you should rally behind it. This sincerity gives rise to a long term care for culture and does away with tiring, stressful musical chairs that give the industry the image it has today. This isn’t me saying I haven’t contributed to that in any way - I play this game too - but we can aspire to change it. People often talk about ‘metas’, local zeitgeists, to inform and guide their investment strategy. While it’s important to have an understanding of behavioural psychology to be a good trader, people often become trapped in their own frameworks without even realizing it. You do not have to be a slave to the repeated cycle of meaningless pump and dumps to ‘make it’. Some ideas are evergreen; in crypto, we have created eternal world computers that will outlive us. We must take advantage of this long term capability to form new outlooks. By creating tokens that have real historical meaning at their inception, we can ignite a multi-generational ethos that ends the culture of nihilistic throwaway scamcoins, and forges a new system for real creators and the followers who care about them. You can enable this and take part in its success by simply deciding to do so. My main choices for this category are $DOG and $NFD. Ownthedoge is a more mainstream oriented brand that impacts the real world through installations like the doge statue (pictured) and official doge merchandise. It is also the most recognizeable of all existing tokens, making the value proposition easier to convey to new market participants. Feisty DAO focuses on consolidating a hold on the crypto-native space. It is smaller and therefore more able to move fast and break things. It has an already impressive collection, and many incubated community projects like @RetroDogesNFT contribute to the community’s ecosystem. If you read this far, thank you. This is a sincere explanation of what I consider to be the most promising non-technical innovation in the space. It is a construct I have worked with for years now, and intend to see through to acceptance, to the benefit of all honest actors. Happy new year, and I wish you a great 2024.