no-coiners price

Main question on my mind here below with BTC at 107.5, ETH 2420, SOL 143.5, OTHERS 230: Can BTC take out ATHs? Two big factors for the bull case is NQ cracking ATHs, relatively light long positioning across the board (BTC OI back to mid-90s level, funding tame), and MSTR mNAV retracing slightly higher off the lows of 1.65 (currently ~1.80). Arguments against the former include BTC at relatively similar levels to equities (3-5% under ATHs) as well as crypto leading the rally off the bottom and effectively frontrunning much of the recent equities upticks. Bears are looking at seasonality (summer historically poor for crypto returns; crypto lagged equities last summer), lack of real near-term catalysts outside of the One Big Beautiful Bill, and some local unwind from holders who bid it up on the Middle East conflict as a chaos hedge. Arguments against this include seasonality arguably mattering less in the post-ETF era-- altcoin bullish seasonality in Q1 failed and so far, sell in May/go away isn’t working. Impact from the OB3 will take time to materialize, and given gold/BTC decorrelation after the immediate aftermath of Tariff Tantrum + local movement on headlines, I find it less likely that BTC was an especially crowded “safe-haven” trade. However, we did see ETH & SOL outperform BTC substantially once the uncertainty cleared on the ceasefire announcement on Monday. Anecdotally, consensus among sharps has shifted from “summer chop/rangebound” when BTC was around 103-105 to “maybe we have a chance at ATHs but no true breakout” as we approach 108. My sense is that the most bullish scenario here is a quick move to just around ATHs, tag some liquidations for a possible wick above, before we retrace back down into the 95-110 range. On the other hand, BTC market structure is starting to roll over and there isn’t a compelling reason for a substantial push beyond ATHs outside of equity beta. I land in the summer chop camp but am happy to play this tactically near the boundaries.