Everyone says opposite, but war is actually bullish for crypto.
Iran→Israel
Apr ‘24:
$BTC: First 2 weeks: –18%; Next 1.5 months: +28%
Oct ‘24:
$BTC: 1st week: –10%; Next 2 months: +62%
🧵 Past patterns & my plan: holding through summer, exiting Nov-Dec 👇
➮ Before we start...
I’d really appreciate a like, RT, or comment on the first tweet – I put a lot of effort into this thread.
1/➮ Continuation of Iran/Israel conflict was just a matter of time
✧ Crypto faced a ~$140B sell-off, panic, and a sharp shift in sentiment to hard bearish
✧ But in the end, BTC recovered to ~$107k.
✧ Why? Because war is actually bullish.
Let me explain:
2/➮ Events like this do trigger short-term bearish volatility.
✧ But history shows that every war-related dip has eventually turned into growth.
Here are recent cases:
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4/➮ Back on April 13, 2024, Iran and Israel openly clashed
✧ BTC dropped 18%, then rose 30% the following month
✧ Same thing happened on October 1, 2024 - BTC fell 10%, then rallied 62%
✧ This time, we dropped only 4% and have already bounced back to $107k.
5/➮ Why does this happen?
✧ Eventually, wars drive ppl into crypto as a hedge against inflation, weakening fiat currencies, and growing global instability
✧ Crypto can’t be frozen like bank accounts, and nowadays, many are increasingly viewing crypto as digital gold.
6/➮ Same pattern was observed during the Russia–Ukraine War and the U.S.–Iran tensions back in 2020
✧ So the growth now is simply a matter of time, even considering the usual summer stagnation
✧ Aside from the pattern, we also have strong supporting macro factors👇
7/➮ U.S. and China have reached a compromise and are easing tariffs
✧ Both sides aim to stabilize global supply chains, cool inflation, and restore investor confidence
✧ Trump is delaying new tariffs, which has led to increased risk appetite and liquidity flowing into crypto
8/➮ The CPI came in cooler-than-expected, rising just 0.1% month-over-month
✧ With 2.4% year-over-year vs. 2.5% forecast
✧ As a result, the Fed is now expected to cut rates twice by year-end
✧ Rate cuts are always bullish for crypto
9/➮ Combination of cooler CPI and tariff relief is boosting confidence that markets will stabilize
✧ Which could potentially push the Fed to shift toward QE (printing money to buy assets)
✧ Typically, this floods markets with liquidity and boosts risk assets like crypto
10/➮ Right now, I'm in more of a risk-off mode, but this could be a good moment to pick up a few high-conviction plays.
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